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What Happened Last Week and What It Means to You: Week Ending September 8, 2023

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Week Ending September 8, 2023

 

Today is September 11, 2023…Please take a moment to pray for our country and remember all of those who passed on 9/11 and the Men and Women who sacrificed all to protect our country and keep us free.

“Let’s Roll”…Todd Beamer 9/11/2001

 

The Wall Street and the Fed quietly root for more unemployment… Don’t be fooled by wishful thinking. Believe your eyes and ears. Ignore the noise. The so-called unaccountable experts in government created this. I will bet on the awakening of the American citizen to get this right.

What does it mean – As they say in DC, never let a crisis go to waste. There are clear signs of softening in the employment situation, including a decline in temporary positions, an uptick in the percentage of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more, and a pickup in the U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for underemployed workers. According to Briefing.com “That softening is exactly what the Fed has been expecting to see — and hoping to see — in response to its campaign to get inflation back down to its 2.0% target.”  The problem is. $4 Trillion more in spending and a President committed to raising energy prices regardless of the cost to our economy will lead to more inflation and without the rule of law more organized shoplifting further driving up the cost to the consumer and the American citizen.

Typical government. Where and when has a centralized government ever fixed main street? Instead of fostering growth, protecting the rule of law, cutting taxes, reducing regulation, and freeing the entrepreneur engine that built this nation, the socialist in DC increase regulation, increase fees, taxes, and limit access to energy and capital and create a larger dependency on government programs further entrapping our citizens to a life of squalor. Expect more difficulty to come.

 

U-6 Unemployment vs. U-3…The government has 6 different ways it reports unemployment. And still can’t get reality right. U-6 is 7.1% vs U-3 at 3.8%.

What does it mean – Depending on what you want to know or how you hope it looks, statistics can be manipulated and are every day when it comes to the administrative state. On Main Street you are either fully employed, retired, going to school, working part time, or unemployed and or under employed and looking for more work or a better job. In the Chart below U-6 in purple measures the percentage of the U.S. labor force that is unemployed, plus those who are underemployed, marginally attached to the workforce, and have given up looking for work. While the red line is what the government reports as the unemployment rate. What really should matter is how many people are unemployed and want to work. Today that number is over 5.4 million Americans. In September of 2016 it was over 6 million Americans looking for work and prior to the forced shutdown by so-called experts it was 4,760,000 Americans seeking employment and almost back to the numbers prior to the 2008 recession.

Inflation could be on the rise…On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 3.2%, versus 3.0% in June, and core CPI was up 4.7%, versus 4.8% in June.

What does it mean – Expect to see the pain at the pump reflected in the July and August reports. Given the jump in oil and gas prices in July and August expect the pain to be felt on main street while the pundits on Wall Street and the media go into hyper drive to talk the fed down.

 

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slumped to 106.1 in August…Revised down from expectations of 117.0 in July according to The Consumer Conference Board and Briefing.Com estimates.

What does it mean – optimism about employment conditions and inflation negatively affected consumers’ view of the present situation and outlook. The same report shows inflation expectations are heading back up from a current expectation in June of 5.7% to 5.8% in July. Mostly due to rising energy costs.

 

Reuters reports, “U.S. manufacturing sector stabilizing at weaker levels in August”… With headlines like this, it is no wonder people scratch their heads.

What does it mean – What Reuters meant to say is we are just not falling as fast as we did the last few months.

 

 

Let’s roll America!!

Doug De Groote, CFP®, MBA, CTC
Managing Director

De Groote Financial Group, LLC is a federally registered investment adviser that maintains a principal office in the State of California. The information contained in this message is confidential, protected from disclosure and may be legally privileged. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient or an employee or agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, distribution, copying, or any action taken or action omitted in reliance on it, is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to this message and destroy the material in its entirety, whether in electronic or hard copy format.

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Jeannie Ewing-Nicholson

Operations Manager

Jeannie started her career in the Financial Services industry in 1994 with Oppenheimer & Company. As part of the De Groote Financial Group, Jeannie is responsible for the operational needs of the firm including cash management and account administration. With her upbeat attitude and attention to detail, Jeannie provides an efficient streamlines experience to ensure clients meet their goals. Jeannie enjoys travel, outdoor activities, Pilates, and is a football and basketball fan. She resides in Westlake Village with her husband, daughter and son.

Mary-Ellen Lykken

Executive Assistant

Mary-Ellen, Executive Assistant at DFG, keeps the office running smoothly by providing administrative support and assisting with scheduling and organization. With a background in human resource and office management, Mary-Ellen comes from the non-profit and services industries.

Outside of the office, Mary-Ellen is committed to the advancement of independence and productivity for those with disabilities. By telling her story of the challenges and joys of raising a child with complicated disabilities, she hopes to help others navigate similar circumstances.

She is happiest when visiting her two grown sons. Otherwise, you can find her competing on the pickleball courts.

Sara Mariniello

Operations Manager

Sara is new to the financial industry only starting in 2022 when she was hired at De Groote Financial. As Operations Manager, Sara is responsible for all the paperwork surrounding opening accounts and investment paperwork and is also responsible for much of the client communication. Sara has her bachelor’s in science and nursing from Concordia University, Texas and worked as nurse for over a year prior to moving back to California. She loves all things sports and church related and is likely spending every free moment with her Husband visiting family in Texas and New Jersey.

Fadi Ahmed

Chief Operations Officer and Chief Compliance Officer

Fadi works with clients to ensure an exceptional experience. He coordinates and assures the planning process and wealth management tools are at your fingertips to provide the clarity you deserve and the transparency and access to all your accounts. Fadi ensures the data and information is reflective in our planning software. All changes and updates flow through his desk and he coordinates those changes with the rest of our team.

Andrew Krout

Wealth Advisor, Co-Chief Investment Officer

Andrew Krout is a Wealth Advisor at De Groote Financial Group, LLC. He also serves as a Co-Chief Investment Officer for the firm, focused on wealth management.

Previously, Andrew served as CIO with Kelly Financial in Boston Massachusetts since 2013. He is a licensed investment advisor representative and insurance producer. He graduated from Saint Francis University with a bachelor’s degree in both finance and accounting. He is a candidate for CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ designation. Andrew holds life insurance licenses in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Connecticut.

Andrew is passionate about serving his clients and investment management and how to apply news and current events to investment decisions. He played Division 1 golf in college, and still enjoys playing and watching the sport in his free time.

David Darst

Co-Chief Information Officer

David Martin Darst, CFA is an Investment Advisor to DeGroote Financial Group, specializing in asset allocation and product selection. Previously, David served for 17 years as a Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, with the responsibility for Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1996 from Goldman Sachs, where he held Senior Management Posts within the Equities Division and earlier, for six years as Resident Manager of their Private Bank in Zurich.

David is the author of 13 books, including bestsellers The Art of Asset Allocation, 2nd Edition (McGraw-Hill), and The Little Book that Still Saves Your Assets (John Wiley & Sons). He also appears as a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, FOX, PBS, and others, and has contributed articles across a variety of publications.

David graduated with a BA in Economics from Yale University, and earned his MBA from Harvard Business School. He has lectured extensively at Wharton, Columbia, INSEAD, and New York University Business Schools, and for nine years, David served as a visiting member at Yale College, Yale School of Management, and Harvard Business School. He is a CFA Charterholder and a member of the New York Society of Security Analysts and the CFA Institute. 

Doug De Groote

Managing Director

Doug is a Certified Financial Planner™ (CFP®) with an MBA in Financial Planning, and is an active member of the Financial Planning Association (FPA). Before establishing De Groote Financial Group, Doug founded the United Wealth Management division of United Capital. Prior to that, Doug was a partner at Crowell, Weedon and Co. He regularly contributes to a variety of financial and general media.

Doug’s passion, and what he believes, is that everyone deserves the opportunity; they deserve to have the freedom and responsibility to be pro-active in achieving independence and financial success.

Doug’s life is focused around his family, wife and three children, and making sure they get the foundation that is necessary for them to have the awareness of the opportunities that abound in our great country.

Doug helps increase his client’s awareness and success, to identify and take advantage of opportunities that present themselves and help protect them from some of the pitfalls or obstacles that are thrown in our paths. With regards to their financial circumstances, Doug helps his clients identify their goals, plan for various outcomes and manage their assets to help them make their vision a reality.