October new home sales declined month-over-month…New home sales declined 17.3% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 units according to Briefing.com. The consensus was 718,000.

What does it mean – while the average sales price increased 9.4% to $545,800, Year-over-year the number of new home sales were down 9.4%. Chalk it up to interest rates and persistent inflation.

Manufacturing capacity continues to sink…Over the last couple of years we have seen manufacturing capacity continue to fall.

What does it mean – The October ISM Manufacturing Index checked in at 46.5% (Briefing.com consensus 47.6%) versus 47.2% in September. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%. This reading from October is the lowest in 2024.

After seeing the economy snap back from the forced shutdowns and massive stimulus, this election has proved that policy matters.

Great expectations…With this election comes a shift in policy. Economic policy has not yet been passed but President elect Trump has been very clear on what he intends to do once in Washington.

What it means – Expect a shift from over regulation and massive government bureaucracy to an emphasis on growth, less regulation and smaller bureaucracy. This has already led to NY region along with the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index confirming an increase in activity. It is still very soft but according to the survey the idea of less government regulation and a focus on business, the outlook is improving.

The percentage of sales to first-time home buyers has fallen to a record low…First time home buyers continue to get squeezed out of the market.

What does it mean – Rising interest rates, increase regulation, massive government spending on housing for illegal immigration through NGO’s and a multitude of government agencies has made first time home buying almost impossible for most Americans under current policy. The competition from government has simply priced out most Americans.

Recent College Grads are having a tough time getting jobs…The unemployment rate among recent college grads has risen well above the total unemployment rate.

What does it mean – This is a disturbing trend as many of our graduates are in up to their ears in student debt now guaranteed by the tax-payers due to the government take over student loans through legislation passed by the Obama administration in 2010.

China is smuggling more Iranian and Venezuelan crude…China and Iran a tangled mess of envy and control.

What does it mean – We have enriched and empowered both Iran and China at the cost of international security and economic stability. Our lack of fortitude and resolve has subsidized the very countries that envy your freedom and hindered economic prosperity and safety around the world.

When you do not have the will to enforce sanctions or hold accountable bad actors, you will get more of what you tolerate. Safety around the world, free people, the rule of law, economic freedom and prosperity are the victims.

US non-owner commercial real estate loan modifications and distress are mounting…Per the chart below non owner occupied commercial real estate loans are continuing to signal trouble.

What does it mean – According to the Harvard Business Review, “Pandemic-accelerated troubles in the CRE market may take more than a decade to resolve.”

Since COVID, we have seen an Increase in office space vacancies linked to remote and hybrid work. Many experts expect this trend could extend price declines and deepen losses for lenders in this space. For owners of these buildings, most empty or underutilized office space is too costly to convert to residential or other uses and will require deeper price concessions to make them a viable investment. In some cases, leases can stretch up to 10 years before they are due for renewal, it may take years for the office space market to clear.

Happy Thanksgiving –

By all measurements our nation is the envy of the world. As a nation and as individual citizens we are not immune to the problems of man or the temptations that come with free will. Yet, as a nation we aspire to be a “more perfect union” and individually, we are inspired by our dreams, the desire to achieve more, to be great stewards, and live a life worth living. In Mathew 25:23 His lord said to him, ‘Well done, good and faithful servant; you have been faithful over a few things, I will make you ruler over many things.”

Our nation has been blessed. Our faith and spirit of self-determination, the rule of law, and the protection that our constitution provides us all. It inspires the ownership mentality. It gives authors the ownership of their words and provides inventors the exclusive ownership of their ideas and inventions. Abraham Lincoln went on to say, Article 1, Section 8, Clause 8 – “Provided the Fuel of Interest to the Fire of genius.”

Our inalienable rights have given us the responsibility to hold our government accountable to be good stewards. We have been blessed to have the conviction of 47 presidents, 119 Congresses and a constitution that protects you from the “tyranny of the majority.” For that I am truly thankful.

This past Sunday I was inspired by our pastor as he discussed the idea of being truly thankful and what our founding fathers had said about Thanksgiving and giving thanks. It forced me to search for the definition of “Thankful” and what it meant to our forefathers. Here is how America’s first dictionary, The 1828 Webster Dictionary, defined Thankful.

THANK’FUL, adjective Grateful; impressed with a sense of kindness received, and ready to acknowledge it. The Lord’s supper is to be celebrated with a thankful remembrance of his sufferings and death.

Be thankful to him, and bless his name. Psalms 100:4.

In George Washington’s Thanksgiving Proclamation on October 3, 1789, he went on to say,

“Whereas it is the duty of all Nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey his will, to be grateful for his benefits, and humbly to implore his protection and favor—and whereas both Houses of Congress have by their joint Committee requested me “to recommend to the People of the United States a day of public thanksgiving and prayer to be observed by acknowledging with grateful hearts the many signal favors of Almighty God especially by affording them an opportunity peaceably to establish a form of government for their safety and happiness.”

On that same day, October 3, 1863, during the Civil War President Abraham Lincoln issued this Thanksgiving Day proclamation.

“It has pleased Almighty God to hearken to the supplications and prayers of an afflicted people and to vouchsafe to the Army and the Navy of the United States victories on land and on the sea so signal and so effective as to furnish reasonable grounds for augmented confidence that the Union of these States will be maintained, their Constitution preserved, and their peace and prosperity permanently restored. But these victories have been accorded not without sacrifices of life, limb, health, and liberty, incurred by brave, loyal, and patriotic citizens. Domestic affliction in every part of the country follows in the train of these fearful bereavements. It is meet and right to recognize and confess the presence of the Almighty Father and the power of His hand equally in these triumphs and in these sorrows:”

Coming out of the Great Depression and witnessing the invasion of Polland and worried about the future, President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued his Thanksgiving Proclamation on October 31, 1939.

“More than three centuries ago at the season of the gathering in of the harvest, the Pilgrims humbly paused in their work and gave thanks to God for the preservation of their community and for the abundant yield of the soil. A century and a half later, after the new Nation had been formed, and the charter of government, the Constitution of the Republic, had received the assent of the States, President Washington and his successors invited the people of the Nation to lay down their tasks one day in the year and give thanks for the blessings that had been granted them by Divine Providence. It is fitting that we should continue this hallowed custom and select a day in 1939 to be dedicated to reverent thoughts of thanksgiving.

Our Nation has gone steadily forward in the application of democratic processes to economic and social problems. We have faced the specters of business depression, of unemployment, and of widespread agricultural distress, and our positive efforts to alleviate these conditions have met with heartening results. We have also been permitted to see the fruition of measures which we have undertaken in the realms of health, social welfare, and the conservation of resources. As a Nation we are deeply grateful that in a world of turmoil we are at peace with all countries, and we especially rejoice in the strengthened bonds of our friendship with the other peoples of the Western Hemisphere.

Let us, on the day set aside for this purpose, give thanks to the Ruler of the Universe for the strength which He has vouchsafed us to carry on our daily labors and for the hope that lives within us of the coming of a day when peace and the productive activities of peace shall reign on every continent.”

We wish you all the very best this Thanksgiving and are truly thankful for the opportunity to serve you and your families.

Let’s roll America!!!

Doug De Groote, CFP®, MBA, CTC
Managing Director

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