Week Ending in June 7, 2024
The second estimate for Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.3%…As expected, the estimate of 1.6% was revised down.
What does it mean – The consumer continues to get hit by rising inflation on everyday living items like food, energy, fuel and cost of transportation. The downward revision to consumer spending to 2.0% from 2.5% tells the story. Middle-income and lower-income Americans are taking the brunt of these policies. While spending was weaker than the fourth quarter, the fed’s message along with DC, is that they expect to see a “soft” landing.
Federal Revenue for month of April…April is always a huge revenue month for the government thanks to the all-important 15th of April…My wife’s birthday and the day your taxes are due unless you have filed an extension. This April was no different.
What does it mean – Treasury Budget for the month of April showed a surplus of $209.5 billion compared to a surplus of $176.2 billion in the same period a year ago. So, our government saw its income go up by 18.8%. You should ask yourself if you feel you are getting 18.8% more from your government? Here is a look at the revenue and expenses for the month of April.
Individual Income Taxes were the largest source of receipts in April ($482 billion), followed by Social Insurance & Retirement receipts ($181 billion), Corporate Income Taxes ($92 billion), and Excise Taxes ($7 billion).
The largest outlays by function were Social Security ($122 billion), Net Interest ($85 billion), Medicare ($74 billion), Health ($70 billion), and National Defense ($64 billion).
California’s increase in minimum wage hitting young people and low-income folks the hardest…The new law that went into effect this past year has done nothing but help those who need it most.
What does it mean – Another example of the government pandering to unions further punishing and neglecting those that create jobs.
Raising the minimum wage for restaurant workers (except for Panera Bread) to $20/hour versus $16/hour for other workers has resulted in unemployment among 16-17 year-olds soaring to 13.6% from 9.7% a year ago. Unemployment among 20-24 year-olds has risen to 7.9% versus 6.3% a year ago. That is a 40.2% and 25% increase respectively. In California alone, the fast-food industry just reported that fast food companies in California lost over 10,000 jobs since the beginning of the year. Your kids and those that should be learning how to work are worse off and less prepared under this administration than at any other time in modern history.
Redistribution through mandatory minimum wage has never worked except for those who do not work but benefit from the dues paid to unions and taxes extorted through payroll taxes. It’s simple. An increase in payroll equals an increase in payroll taxes and an increase in revenue to the government and unions. It does not take much to see why there is a push to unionize Starbucks, McDonalds, and other fast-food joints? Who really benefits from a government mandate…The statistics and reality are obvious. Not your kids or those getting their first job, but a more expensive, and ever-growing government and union!!
U.S. Adds 272,000 new jobs in May…Bureau of Labor Statistics announces better than expected job numbers.
What does it mean – Don’t get to excited, there is not enough lipstick to make this pig look pretty. Something just does not add up! See the chart below.
Digging into the numbers paints a totally different picture. While the headline numbers came out touting 272,000 new jobs in May (almost all part time), we lost over 600,000 full time jobs. Not to mention 48% are funded by the government, specifically in health care, social services, and direct government jobs. Leisure and hospitality lead the way in the private sector. Unfortunately, most were part time. See below.
50% of all new jobs created went to illegal immigrants…A new Congressional report just released shows over 50% of all the new jobs have gone to illegal immigrants.
What does it mean – If you are just starting out or are young and looking for a job or do not have specific skills, this administrations immigration policy is destroying your future as they continue to assist and harbor illegal immigrants and are now providing documentation for them to be able to work illegally. American citizens, especially in the lower to mid-income have been replaced by illegals.
Fewer U.S. Citizens or native-born Americans are employed…Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), fewer Americans are employed today than before the Wuhan virus escaped the Chinese lab run by Echo Health and funded by Dr. Fauci and the NIH per most recent testimony in Congress.
What does it mean – Employment is not only millions below pre-pandemic trend, but even below pre-pandemic level, while millions more foreign workers are employed today than Feb 2020. Check out this graph. A picture is truly worth 30 million words!!
Unemployment up to 4.0%…One must ask, if we are creating jobs, why is unemployment going up?
What does it mean – With over 272,000 new jobs in May, unemployment was up slightly to 4.0%. The economist, E.J. Antoni explained that there are “millions of people missing from the labor market” who are not included in the unemployment rate. If those people are included, unemployment suddenly jumps anywhere between 6.5% and 8.0% “depending on methodology.”
The BLS estimates that there are 5.7 million American citizens who are “not in the labor force” but “currently want a job.”
“These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job,” according to BLS.
The NFIB small business survey signals slower job growth ahead…Small businesses continue to struggle under the heavy thumb of increasing regulation and stubborn inflation.
What does it mean – Government is spending to much and is too quick to regulate and continues to overstep. According to David Sachs, a noted VC investor and co-founder of Craft Ventures from the bay area, points to this administration’s habit of having a “quick trigger finger” when it comes to regulation. Often leading to the destruction of the capital markets and the creation of capital making it far too expensive to run or start a business.
Small businesses are the heart of the American economy. They do the heavy lifting when it comes to job creation and wealth creation.
The fallacy of Social Security…Social Security (SS). Anything but secure.
What does it mean – Here is the direct quote from the Social Security Administrations website. One may call it a mission statement. “Social Security provides financial protection for our nation’s people, supporting Americans throughout all of life’s journeys. We administer retirement, disability, survivor, and family benefits, and enroll individuals in Medicare.”
Recently a client sent me a post on Instagram that spoke about the numbers an average American would contribute to SS and what they would receive once they reach age 62.
In the post it claimed that this “person would pay in the following and receive the following.” After looking closely at the numbers, I had to make some assumptions. Here is his post. His numbers are pretty darn accurate according to Free the Facts.com and the SSA’s own website.
Instagram link from my client –
“By the time I am 67, over $600,000 will be paid into Social Security on my behalf.
That money would have been worth $1.9M if I had gotten a 5% return.
My annual interest would be $95K.
The Government promises me $3,075/month at 67, which is $37K/year
How is this not THEFT?”
Let’s assume this person has averaged $100,000 in income over his lifetime. He started working at age 18 and retired at 67 and started taking income after 49 years of working to support his family and contribute to society.
- Every employee pays 6.2% of their income to SSA
- Every employer pays in 6.2% of all salaries to SSA
- Average employed American has 12.4% contributed to SSA
- $100,000 * 12.4% = $12,400 paid in to SSA per year
- 49 years of work
- Total contribution to SSA = $607,600
- Interest rate earned annually – 5%
- Pre-tax Total value at 67 – $2,622,190.89
- Assume 20% tax on all earnings.
- Net value at 67 – $1,889,902.42
- Annual income from 67 at a 5% return is $94,995.10
What would this mean to your family and society? Could you imagine what this would mean to families where both the husband and the wife work (2 times the number based on the facts)? What would your life look like, if society did not cede so much of our economic control to the government? Would we be better off financially and pay far fewer taxes because we encouraged self-discipline and accountability instead of dependency and no accountability?
Would society be more generous to charity to help those that are less fortunate? Could you imagine not having to pay for a bureaucracy that is excited to grow at the expense of the very people they are supposed to serve, but give freely to charities and causes or concerns that you chose to give to?
Are you willing to go along to get along? Is compromise worth the sacrifice? Are we encouraging a society of entitlement vs. rewarding those that are disciplined, work hard, achieve, save, and invest? Ask yourself, what is SS/federal government doing with your money? Is the federal government or our elected leaders’ great stewards? Why are we destroying our children’s futures? No matter how old you are, what you do, or how much you make, you do not have to stay on this path. Plant your stake and take control of your destiny. Ask yourself, “what are my resources?” I will bet there are a lot more things going for you than you think. Happy to discuss anytime.
Let’s roll America!!
Doug De Groote, CFP®, MBA, CTC
Managing Director
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