CPI decreased 0.1% month-over-month in March…CPI was up 2.4% year-over-year versus 2.8%in February.
What does it mean – We know companies did a bit of stockpiling prior to the tariffs taking effect. We may be seeing the power of “Drill Babby, Drill”. I believe it too early, but it looks like energy is offsetting the costs of the expected tariffs as fuel prices are continuing to fall. Remember these are March numbers and the tariffs are not even included in these numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Wholesale prices unexpectedly fall 0.4% in March…Fear of tariffs are real, yet inflation and all the noise has yet to materialize.
What does it mean – The PPI report surprised to the downside, while expectation was an increase of 0.20% the actual number came in at -0.39%. The headline figure posted a sharp decline last month vs. expectations that companies preordering goods prior to this administration’s tariff orders would lead to increased inflation prior to the roll out of tariffs.
Manufacturing orders continue to grow…New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 0.9% month-over-month in February.
What does it mean – Following an upwardly revised 3.3% increase (from 3.1%) in January, durable goods orders were stronger than expected.
Egg prices continue down…According to the Axios report, “The average wholesale price of a dozen eggs was $3 Friday, down 8% from $3.27 on March 21, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data released Friday.”
What does it mean – Per the above CPI report non processed food prices are falling. Eggs are an important part of the cost of processed or prepared food as many baked goods and restaurants demand a large volume of eggs to meet their demand. The article went on to say that “It’s (egg prices) down 63% from a record $8.15 in the Feb. 21 report.”
Consumer confidence falls…The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 92.9 in March from an upwardly revised 100.1 in February.
What does it mean – Tariffs are all the rage. Literally. It’s no surprise that consumer confidence is down when the media is pounding the table that the financial world as we know it is over. In fact, according to analysis by News Buster, the mainstream media — namely ABC, CBS, and NBC — devoted 62 times more coverage to the Trump tariffs and market reaction than to the sterling job numbers that beat all expectations. Fortunately, all of us who get up and do things everyday are realizing that the noise is exactly what it is, a mix of misinformation, lack of clarity and constant bombardment of “yellow journalism” at its best, a total disregard for the fact and lack of factual and balanced reporting.
U.S. Employers add more Jobs than expected…According to The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics this month’s jobs numbers crushed expectations.
What does it mean – If you listened to the media this past week you would never have known it. U.S. employers added 228,000 workers to their payrolls in March, while expectations were only set for 140,000 jobs. According to John Carney, “The private sector’s hiring was much stronger than expected. Economists had forecast 115,000 jobs. Businesses added 209,000 jobs.”
Brent crude plunged nearly 7%…This is the sharpest drop in two years.
What does it mean – After OPEC stunned markets with a supply hike nearly tripling the planned amount. The move sharply reversed recent gains and pushed prices below the $70 threshold, marking a significant shift from the group’s traditionally cautious stance. “Drill Baby Drill.” It is serving its purpose here and abroad.
“Hey China” …In South Africa, “Hey China”, is slang for “friend” or “mate”. China’s current behavior may turn a friendly expression in South Africa to a what may become slang for a joke or someone who lacks credibility or integrity, or in China’s case, the complete opposite of friend.
What does it mean –China’s independent refiners have been buying more Iranian crude oil propping up terrorism and stoking Mideast unrest. Oh, did I forget that they are buying it from a terrorist-sponsoring nation that supports terrorists firing missiles at cargo ships at below-market prices.
Hey, China, what’s up with that? Lots more to come.
Prescription drug costs down…Down 2.02%. Biggest drop in recent history.
What does it mean – Could consumers be seeing the effect of DOGE and the waste and fraud in the government health care system? Are they preparing for a “come to Jesus” moment with reality? Drug manufacturing is moving quickly to the U.S.
Novartis just announced $23 billion investment in the U.S. to build and expand 10 U.S. facilities. The new facilities include six manufacturing plants and a research and development site. The construction will take place over five years and create more than 4,000 jobs.
Voting with your feet…over 135 countries, many in deals with China and have participated in its “belt and road” initiative have decided it is better to deal with America than be strong-armed by a communist dictatorship.
What does it mean – Bilateral agreements are on the way. Free trade and fair trade are a lot more beneficial than China’s empty promises. Tariffs are not an uniquely American issue but one that the entire world has enjoyed and benefited from for nearly 50 years. China’s gaming the system is now out in the open and quite frankly upsetting a lot of folk’s apple carts. With the band-aid ripped off, many American citizens are seeing the lunacy of globalism and the fallacy of redistribution of their wealth through bad policy. Making China and our enemies richer does not make the world safer.
Go Big or Go Home!! Trumps Tariffs…He chose the little guy. The factory worker, the farmer, the entrepreneur. He chose the American citizen over multinational U.S. based companies.
What does it mean – According to MIT over one million manufacturing jobs were lost to China from 1999 to 2011 and our country loss 70,500 manufacturing establishments from 1997 to 2022. Those are businesses and jobs that have been gutted by the laziness of globalization and the redistribution of wealth our elected leaders projected on to you, the American citizen. You paid the price for their laziness and greed and grift.
Bernie, AOC, and Elizabeth Warren are out on the stump railing against the very oligarchies that they created and in turn, fund their political ambitions and wealth.
With the help of “big government Republicans” like both Bush’s, McCain, McConnel, Lankford, and Cornyn and the massive lobbying from the Chamber of Commerce, they have put in place the very laws, regulations, and bureaucracies that have fed and protected globalism. They passed massive multi-lateral trade deals like NAFTA and the TPPA that have never helped the American worker, entrepreneur, or farmer and made it more difficult for small businesses, and has led to fewer banks, more expensive capital, and the very military-industrial complex that Eisenhower had warned us about.
What Eisenhower missed was that our very own government would create the industrialized complex that has nearly nationalized medicine and the student loan industry and has further led to the unholy alliances between the government and the pharmaceutical/drug industry and the financial industry.
Today, we have more regulations than ever. These regulations have put in place the barriers that have suffocated competition, and the free flow of capital, drove small providers like insurance companies and small banks out of markets due to over-regulation and further distorting and creating a reliance on the very biggest providers who can afford to navigate the massive government overreach and sheer cost to compete head to head with multinational firms and government overreach. It is stifling.
Trump went big, because we got lazy. Not individually, but as a nation. We let our success get to our head. We believed our press clippings while sin ate us from the inside out.
As we celebrate Passover and Easter, it could not be more apparent that the resurrection of Jesus who washed away our sins or the Exodus from Egypt that brought the Jewish people and civilization new freedom and a new beginning. The analogy in the language of our time and the reaction of the people are too similar not to reflect upon these historical events.
That maybe these tariffs, the transparency that DOGE brings, and the massive unwinding of the nanny state is us, the American citizen, waking up as a nation to stop the poisoning of our children and our culture from a virus of dependency on government and a quick fix or instant gratification that is killing us morally, spiritually and physically.
When Moses led his people out of Egypt, the journey lasted 40 years and many of the people who escaped the slavery and humiliation, and certain death, actually revolted and complained and begged to go back to Egypt where they were willing to trade their freedom for a little safety of food and shelter. Yet, Moses stood strong, never deviated from Gods plan and continued to lead his people to the promise land.
Today, after doing the same thing over and over expecting different results, we have become dependent on the status quo. Afraid to change in policy that has led to ever increasing dependency on government, high taxes, massive government overreach, destruction of the dollar, never ending trade deficits, subsidizing our enemies and a deterioration of our inalienable rights. Many of our citizens and some who are not, wait diligently like good little minions for their government handout while elected officials who have been in office for 30, 40 or even 50 years have created the very problems that they are now telling you how they will solve them. We have traded our freedom for a bit of safety and a guarantee that the government cannot deliver. Crime is through the roof. Schools are failing our children. Medicine is now all about medication and building a dependency on prescriptions to mask the reality of overeating and not exercising and poor mental health.
Seeking the easy way out has actually created a dependency on government. We ceded control of our future for the hope of someone else or government would solve our problems.
We voted to nationalize Health Care and now we have the very people who voted to take away your freedom of healthcare celebrating the death of a CEO who runs a health insurance company. What they should be doing is protesting congress who stripped their rights and forced them and everyone of us to subsidize society. How is that fairing. First generation that will have a shorter life span in the history of America.
We hear people from all sides of the aisle complain about their lot in life but never seek to change their stripes. They blame everyone for their woes and when someone finally steps up to take the yoke of government off their back and give them the gift of self-determination, they cry foul and scream tyranny for fear of losing their hand out in defense of the tyrant – Big Government.
Killing the sin that kills us. We are easily distracted from what we want and who we want to be. In my day it was TV. For some it could be social media, food, or drugs. These are a few of the very things that distract us from reality and are the enemies of prosperity, freedom, and who we want to be.
Our habits often become our addiction. Distracting us from our duties and responsibilities. It often becomes the enemy of productivity. When a bad habit becomes an addiction, it undermines the joy of accomplishment or the satisfaction of being self-reliant. Distorts and hinders personal relationships with family and friends. It separates us from our purpose and who we want to be.
Just maybe “ripping off of the band aid” and letting everyone see the disfunction of a government so big that our addiction to an easy government solution is now overshadowed by the yoke of a government so careless and abusive that when found out cries fowl and begs for another chance to lead you astray through the creation of another “free government service” and an agency that will safeguard the taxpayer from fraud and waste. Nothing is free. The government does not care about your money. Reality, agency after agency is dependent on more tax revenue to doll out services that are often more inefficient and leave the taxpayer worse off than before. Homelessness, hunger and mental help have found far better solutions at a better cost point (Charitable contributions) through charities and churches at the local level.
Shrinking government is killing the sin that kills us and puts you back in charge of your destiny.
As a nation, our combined fear of not wanting to face reality and the attitude of “Go along to get along”, may be the distraction or the habit or sin we need to kill to master our own destiny and realize our fullest potential as a nation and individually as a productive citizen.
Let’s face it, as a nation, we may be a bit guilty of taking the easy way out. Letting TV and social media distract us from our reality, numbing us of the pain and responsibility of being a well-informed productive citizen.
As for President Trump went big because we have checks and balances. The greatest is the voting box. His time is limited. Being distracted by social media or what others say is not his gig, nor does he care. Remember folks, we have been down this road many times before. As King Solom said, “There is nothing new under the sun.” What he was referring to is human behavior.
The pendulum swings both ways. It took Carter to get a Reagan who the media and all of Reagan’s political opposition shouted from the roof top that Reagan would cause WWIII and depression. Today, it took a Biden to get a Trump and now we have to wait and see if his decisive actions to audit the government with DOGE, limit governments size and cost, reduce regulation and increase personal freedom, try to lower taxes and protect the American worker, farmer, entrepreneur, and American dreamer will resemble the massive shift our nation saw in 1981 as our nation transitioned with massive policy change under Reagan’s first term that is very similar to today.
“Hey China”, I would not bet against the American Dream of self determination brought on by capitalism and the free markets. America is still free and willing to kill the sin of Big Government.
