Week Ending in September 6, 2024

Nonfarm payrolls keep coming in below expectations…August nonfarm payroll headlines continue the downward trend.

What does it mean – Coming in below expectations and accompanied by downward revisions to July and June that helped drive the 3-month average down from 141,000 to a consistently disappointing 116,000 for the last 3 months. The good news is this the downward revisions are only a bit over 17% off not the normal 30% to 40% revisions we keep getting from the BLS over the last couple of years. The poor job numbers should help convince the Federal Reserve to lower rates.

U6 unemployment rate increases to 7.9%…U6 accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers.

What does it mean…More and More Americans are seeking a second job or trying to find a higher paying job as they are unable to make ends meet.

Manufacturing output fell 0.3%…Durable manufacturing declined 0.9%.

What does it mean – While manufacturing capacity utilization dropped to 77.2% from a downwardly revised 77.9% in June, industrial production continues to signal a slowing economy under this administration’s policies and ever-increasing regulations.

Nothing to see here…It can’t be because there is an election coming up!! The Treasury Budget for August showed a deficit of $380.1 billion compared to a surplus of $89.3 billion in the same period a year ago.

What does it mean – Fiscal year-to-date deficit is $1.897 trillion or 24% higher than the same period a year ago and some how we found it possible to increase spending by $469 billion for the month of August 2024 vs. August of 2023.

Hey Congress, yes you, we know who you are. You are the folks elected to oversee our budget and protect the treasury and resources of the Citizens of the United States of America. Yes, You!!!

Here is how our president and the “last person” in the room decided to secure their future at the cost of yours.

Up until August, the monthly budget deficit was moving along as expected per the ridiculous Green New Deal, massive spending, and the litany of Continued Resolutions to make sure government continues to waste resources at the expense of the American taxpayer.

Just as we started to see inflation subside and the Fed started to increase projections of lower interest rates, polls reflected a shift or need for change in DC. These self-serving morons realized they may be out of a job if they don’t feed you cake and entertain you with gladiators. Just as the gladiators started to take the field (football – and I am a huge fan), our elected and unelected bureaucrats found their “Marie Antoinett” and “Commodus” moment and flooded the system with an unexpected massive spend in the month of August, waiting to see September, hoping to reboot the economy and hoping we do not get a recession just in time for the elections. See the chart below from the U.S. Treasury and Zero Hedge.

As expected, when it is someone else’s money, and it is, leadership acted swiftly to protect its power and self-serving agenda. They kicked the wheels of Government into massive overdrive last month, as outlays as quoted above, this administration increased spending in August by a mind-blowing $469 billion totaling $686 billion, the highest since March 2023, and only a handful of crisis months during the covid crash saw greater government spending in any given month according to Zero Hedge and the U.S. Treasury. The month of August 2024 and the American taxpayer is now the proud owner of a record deficit of $380 billion, up more than 50% from the $243 billion in July, and up more than 55% from July, and up 66% from last August.

You know it is bad when the U.S. Treasury quietly releases these numbers after 5am ET when everyone was sleeping, not at its regular time of 2pm ET. This explains why our “state run media/reporters” again where caught off guard by their cohorts in DC.

Yet, it does not explain why our President, Vice President, and the majority of our 535 useful idiots in both houses could have used these funds several ways to protect and help the American Citizen. If these funds actually existed and did not borrow them, these funds could have reduced taxes for every American, pay down the deficit, improve health care, protect our border, fly every illegal immigrant back to their country of origin, or given 330,000,000 U.S. citizens $1,424.21. A family of five would have gotten $7,120.60. That would have filled a few gas tanks with and a few shopping carts with food. Not to mention put the money back in the hands of the consumer where it belongs.

Let’s roll America!!!

Doug De Groote, CFP®, MBA, CTC
Managing Director

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