Happy 250th America…Let’s Celebrate all year long!!
Q3 GDP expanded at a robust 4.3% annualized rate…Despite the longest government shutdown in years, GDP grew significantly above the 3.3% consensus estimate. Driven by strong consumer spending and a substantial contribution from net trade.
What does it mean – Affordability continues to be the headline and major concern for us all. Yet, the consumer continues to flourish while net trade continues to favor strong demand for US goods despite the so-called expert’s predictions on tariffs and the government shutdown. Based on what I see a smaller government is a better government and a heck of a lot less expensive.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27 decreased by 16,000 to 199,000…Briefing.com consensus was 226,000.
What does it mean – Coming in below 200,000 for just the second time this year. This should be encouraging to a market that has grown more sensitive to signals from the labor market.
Existing home sales increased 0.5% month-over-month…November brought a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million. While sales were down 1.0% on a year-over-year basis.
What does it mean – November home sales got a nice boost as the Fed lowered rates.
Headline inflation for November cooled to 2.7% Y/Y…Core inflation fell to 2.6% Y/Y, both significantly below consensus forecasts.
What does it mean – Month-over-month inflation rates were not available due to the government shutdown. The chart below shows estimates based on inflation trends from alternative data sources.
Here is a breakdown of year-over-year inflation by component.
Leading indicators expect US growth to be solid in 2026…Bridgewater’s leading indicator expects US growth to be solid and above FOMC forecasts for the coming year.
What does it mean – Less government regulations, bureaucracy, and lower taxes, puts you in charge of more of your money.
Happy Birthday America. As a nation we are about to celebrate our country’s 250th birthday. I can’t wait and love the idea of celebrating our nation’s greatest achievements, our rich history, traditions, and recognize and celebrate our founding fathers’ unprecedented achievements.
What does it mean – Call me patriotic. I love being an American.
Our history is remarkable and it was no mistake that we are here today because our founding fathers understood where freedom comes from.
We are the greatest country in the world. Our economic power is second to none. Our constitution has secured our nation for nearly 250 years and through every generation, it has met the challenges our world has thrown at us every time.
Through our republic and commitment to free markets, capitalism and free people, the United States has freed more people from tyranny and socialism than all nations combined or any other form of government. It has protected us from despots, tyrannical governments, enemies both foreign and domestic, spread freedom throughout the world and promoted and protected individual liberty throughout.
The United States citizen gives more to charity than all nations combine. We feed and protect the starving world and provide the resources and examples of individual success and the power of a can-do spirit and rugged individualism. We have more patents and have created more technology, art, music, businesses, industries, scientists, doctors, and continually lead the world in inventions and patents year in and year out. In fact, there is not another nation even close to us when it comes to creating life-changing inventions, wealth, saving lives, and protecting freedom, free speech and religious liberty. When the world gets ugly, the world calls on America. And we deliver over and over again.
You have to wonder how this is possible. What is in our DNA that is so different from Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America? Is it the land? Is it the people? What is it? Why are we seen as the enemy or vilified by so many yet called upon to solve the world’s problems through our treasure, talent and blood? Why does the American citizen continue to sacrifice their hard-earned savings and so freely give it to those less fortunate?
The following list of countries by charitable donation shows the total charitable donations from individuals within the nation, as a percentage of the nation’s GDP. The figures were published in February 2016 by the Charities Aid Foundation (CAF) in its report titled Gross Domestic Philanthropy.[1] The report only considers the 24 countries about which CAF was able to collect comprehensive data.
One can only surmise that when push comes to shove, our staunchest allies, and fiercest enemies of freedom are jealous or fear our patriotism, our love of country, generosity, and the abundance of good fortune through hard work and individual liberty. These nay sayers of freedom fear free people because free people are often the most prosperous people and are less reliant on the trapping of government entitlement programs. Free people remove the need for big government. That is why they fear America and our Constitution. It reminds me of Galatians 4:16 “Have I now become your enemy by telling the truth.”
The American citizen is unfazed. No matter what they say, we are a generous bunch. The American citizen gives more year in and year out regardless of economic circumstances. Yet, history has shown that when the cost of government goes up through higher taxes and regulation, charity suffers. Historically our charitable giving has been just above 2% over the last 50 years and was even higher prior to the advent of Johnsons Great society. When Big Government got Bigger the poor suffered and charities struggled to meet their needs allowing the trappings of government entitlement chain the poor and needy to endless programs run by bureaucrats.
America has a culture of gratitude and understands that giving freely is an amazing joy the rest of the world does not understand and is often sidelined by bad policy and overreaching governments that have replaced charity with the high cost of burdensome entitlement programs. Our tax code celebrates and promotes charity. In fact, you have heard me say, “you can give by choice or by force.” You get to pick.
Davy Crockett famously said that while individuals have the right to give their own money as charity, Congress has no constitutional authority to appropriate public funds for charitable purposes, arguing it leads to corruption, a principle detailed in his “Not Yours to Give” speech. Davy Crocket was spot on. Look at the huge fraud we have seen within the NGO’s and entitlement programs that are the government answer to charity. He believed charity should be a personal, not governmental, responsibility, emphasizing that using public money this way was a dangerous overreach of power, not a debt or right.
Don’t give up. The power of gratitude is one that promotes immense pleasure and sense of self worth and accomplishment. The more you give the more you receive.
Let’s roll America!!
Doug De Groote, CFP®, MBA, CTC
Managing Director
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